Old and Young: Population Dynamics
School in Gao, Mali
Crédit: UN Photo / Marco Dormino 2014
Summary
The demographic changes apparent in societies result from the complex interaction of many factors with serious outcomes for development and mobility. Fertility rates are declining all over the world, dropping below the replacement threshold in some regions. Population distribution by age bracket shows a marked difference between the countries of the North and South.
The age structure of different societies around the world is conditioned by changes in the relationship between natural increase and net migration, which have a major impact on population growth and decline. The birthrate results from the more or less free choices of individuals, who in turn have many motives relating to economic and socio-cultural conditions, health, public policy (social provision for families, legal or ancestral prohibitions, the constraints of natalist or anti-natalist policies, direct or indirect financial support for families, etc.) and even the notion of family itself. Mortality is directly linked to peace, economic and sanitary conditions and public health, and also to natural disasters. Meanwhile migration is dependent on all these factors, starting with poverty and conflict. The tools for collecting all these data and the capacity for retrospective measuring vary from one country to the next and according to the highly complex demographic dynamics of each society, but broad trends can be identified. According to the United Nations Population, the total fertility rate for the whole world has gone from some 5 live births per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.5 births in 2010-2015. This change means that 46 % of the world’s population lives in countries where fertility has fallen below the replacement threshold (2.1 live births per woman), a figure expected to rise to 50 % in 2020-2025 and 75 % by 2030. In the 1990s, most countries in the world recorded remarkable progress in survival rates. While overall life expectancy at birth rose by 3.6 years between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015 (from 67.2 to 70.8 years), this was because the increase was faster in Africa (60.2 to 71.8 years). Today, when 42 % of the world’s inhabitants are under 25 (27 % in Europe and 60 % in Africa), the older population is growing faster than the population as a whole. Across the world, 962 million people were over 60 in 2017, twice as many as in 1980, and this figure is expected to double by 2050 (2.1 billion, including 425 million over 80).
Young and old, 2015
Comment: The maps show reverse geographies: one of them specifies the proportion of under-15s in the population of states, while the second indicates the percentage of over-65s. These estimates – calculated for 2015 by the UN’s Population Division – show a sub-Saharan Africa in which young people represent over a third of the population. This is frequently the case in the Middle East also, which contrasts with North America, Eurasia, Northeast Asia, and Oceania, where there is a greater preponderance of older people in the populations.
Old but still rich in the North
The steady growth in the numbers of older people in the societies of the North is the result of three long-term trends: fertility control, greater life expectancy and low levels of migration. A high standard of living, extensive systems of social protection, large numbers of women in the workforce and the spread of birth control have caused the birthrate to collapse, so that generations can no longer be replaced. Medical advances and access to health care have led to increased life expectancy. This boom in the numbers of older people, which was predictable though not anticipated, has turned Europe into the world’s oldest continent (35 % over 60). In a period that has seen the dismantling of the welfare state, low immigration and economic crisis, populations and individuals are facing major challenges in the economic, political, social, societal and family spheres, with rising health costs and a lack of support and care for the elderly, which in turn pose questions for end of life ethics and retirement provision.
People over 60 living with their children, 1990-2010
Comment: Two-thirds of people aged over 60 live in developing regions and, throughout the world, half of over-60s live with their children. This global level masks strong regional differences: There are fewer than 20% living with children in North America and Europe compared with over 60% in Asia and Africa, where poverty allows no other solution than the cohabitation of generations.
The individuation of societies, family breakdown, urbanization, the housing crisis and the dissolution of social ties reinforce inequalities among older people. There is a growing divide between those who have access to the market in quality retirement homes and those who find themselves relegated to the margins and need help from charities in order to survive.
Evolution of the number of young and old, 1950-2050
Comment: The curves show the evolution, in millions, of the numbers of under-15s and over-65s, between 1950 and 2050, using projections of the UN’s Population Division. In the first ten countries, the increase in the number of older people is more sustained than among the younger population, confirming a general ageing trend. For young people, the strongest growth is in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia; while in emerging countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia and China) growth in the older population outstrips that of the North.
Still young and poor in the South
The increases in life expectancy that have begun to emerge in the South vary from one country to the next, and between social groups within a society. The persistence of diseases spread by infection or parasites and the proliferation and duration of situations of conflict are slowing and undermining these developments, notably in Africa. Though the birthrate is slowing everywhere, without social protection or access to contraception it remains very high in some places and, even when it falls, the age structure encourages births. The poorest regions and groups are those with the most children, adolescents and women.
Fertility Rates, 1950-2050
Comment: The curves show how fertility evolved between 1950 and 2015 with, for a few countries, projections up until 2050. Over the period under consideration, the number of children per woman fell everywhere. This trend can be observed in the countries of the North, which were already evidencing low levels in 1950 (Japan, Russia, United States, France); in those where the drop has already occurred (China, Brazil, India, Algeria), and in those where it is in progress/still to come (sub-Saharan Africa, including the Niger with 7 children per woman in 2015).
These poverty-driven demographic effects continue unchecked and are even increasing, generating greater needs for schools, health centers and jobs. UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund) estimates that, by 2030, 167 million children will be living in extreme poverty, 83 % of them in Africa. Countries with liberalized economies were pressured into cutting their spending and have suffered 10 years of economic crisis. They are unable to invest in the future of their young people, who have no option but to emigrate given the lack of training and jobs. The ageing of the population began in sub-Saharan Africa where, depending on the country, the proportion of old people is expected to double or even quadruple by 2050, leading to further difficulties for countries and families. China is in a singular demographic situation due to its one-child policy (1979-2015) and spectacular increases in life expectancy (from 40 years in 1949 to 76.5 in 2015). A very rapidly ageing society (135 million over 60 in 2015, 359 in 2050) in a context of massive urbanization, low incomes and low levels of social coverage could slow its economic expansion.
- natural increase > Natural population change
- {alias} Total fertility rate
- net migration > Natural population change
- {alias} Total fertility rate
- growth > Growth
- A long-term, sustained increase in a country’s production of economic wealth, in other words, its GDP. Economic growth is not synonymous with development. Measuring it with purely economic and monetary tools is becoming increasingly unsatisfactory because of the deterritorialization and internationalization of economic activities, as well as the failure to take account of any wealth creation that cannot be monetized (elimination of illiteracy, gains in scientific or cultural knowledge, etc.). This implies special emphasis on high productivity despite the potential destruction (especially ecological) caused by growth that is seen exclusively from the angle of economics and financial profitability.
- peace > Peace
- The definition of peace is much debated. A restrictive definition sees peace simply as an absence of conflict (negative peace). Peace Studies reinterpreted this definition to include the conditions necessary for peace – positive peace must be an integral aspect of human society. Combined with the concept of structural violence, positive peace was then defined more broadly to include social justice. Among the different theories of peace, the sometimes criticized notion of democratic or liberal peace asserts that the liberal democracies do not go to war with each other and only fight against non-liberal states (this approach qualifies Kant’s postulate in Perpetual Peace, 1795).
- natural disasters > Natural disaster
- A generic term used to describe a meteorological, climatic or geophysical event that has consequences for human societies (victims, economic losses and physical damage). The disaster depends on the cause of the event and the society’s degree of vulnerability. The term is used to describe both sudden phenomena (earthquakes, hurricanes, storms, etc.) and those that evolve slowly (drought, desertification, ocean acidification, etc.). The term of “natural” disaster is often criticized for concealing the structural causes of crises and the political responsibilities involved, both in triggering the disaster (poor management of resources, absence of preventive policies, etc.) and in the responses made to it.
- migration > Migration
- Movement of people leaving their country of origin permanently (emigration) to relocate to another country (immigration), which might be voluntary or forced (war, poverty, unemployment, human rights violations, climate factors, etc.), and which often involves temporary stays of varying duration in several transit countries. Migratory flows, which are an integral component of humanity’s history, give rise to a range of public policy measures linked to specific political, economic and cultural contexts and understandings of nationality. Host states seek to organize immigration, sometimes to attract it (need for labor, exploitation of specific territories, naturalizations, etc.), and most often to restrict it (border controls, quotas, residence permits, etc.). In most cases the states of origin seek to maintain relations with their nationals and diaspora communities living abroad.
- poverty > Poverty
- Initially referring to a lack of economic resources, the notion of poverty has broadened in recent decades to include its different components, such as appalling sanitary conditions, a low level of education, social and gender inequalities, human rights violations, environmental damage, and increased vulnerability to so-called “natural” disasters. The Human Development Index (HDI) developed by the United Nations Development Program in the mid-1990s (and its gendered variant, Gender Development Index or GDI) and the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) devised by researchers at the University of Oxford in 2010, use Amartya Sen’s work on capabilities to identify the deprivation suffered by the poor in terms of health, education, and living standards.
- social protection > Social Protection
- Payments enabling individuals to cope with life’s risks without compromising their living standards. These include maternity, the costs of raising a family, sickness and disability, unemployment, old age, etc. The three current systems have different origins and aims and influence each other. Social assistance is a minimum income intended to establish solidarity between individuals in the fight against poverty. It is means-tested rather than being based on previous contributions (for example, the welfare system advocated by Beveridge in the UK). Social insurance seeks to counteract the risk of loss of income by providing benefits funded by contributions taken from wages (for example, the system introduced by Bismarck in Germany). Universal benefits are intended to cover certain types of expenditure for all individuals and identical amounts are paid to all, regardless of income or contributions (for example, universal health care coverage in France).
- boom > Population boom
- This is a colorful expression for sudden demographic change. The so-called baby boom describes the sharp rise in the birth rate in Europe and North America after World War II, which lasted until the early 1970s. The “oldie boom” is the corresponding demographic and economic effect of those numerous baby boomers reaching retirement age, and the lower birth rate that followed the boom. Some people, exaggerating the trend and not without their own political agenda, now talk of a population explosion that is to come in those parts of the world where, despite a fall in the birth rate, the considerable size of the younger generation foreshadows strong population growth (sub-Saharan Africa).
- welfare state > Welfare state
- The welfare state and its practices emerged in Europe in the late 19th century, breaking with the traditional concept of the liberal state. The crisis of the 1930s, followed by the Second World War, made its expansion a matter of necessity. The state became highly redistributive (modifying primary income distribution by redistributing funds levied via tax and social insurance contributions in the form of social benefits), especially during the “Trente Glorieuses” period, i.e. 1945 to 1975. Its role was radically challenged by the processes of globalization and the proponents of neoliberalism, just when economic crisis has made the existence of a social safety net increasingly necessary.
- individuation > Individual
- The individual, as a basic social actor, is playing an increasingly important role in the processes of globalization for multiple reasons, including the ever-faster circulation of ideas, values and information; the ability to build networks for sharing and solidarity without physical proximity; the networking of international expertise; and human rights movements and demands for democracy.
- inequalities > Inequality
- Unequal distribution of goods, material and/or non-material, regarded as necessary or desirable. Beyond income inequality (national, international and global), cumulative inequalities can also be measured with respect to accessing public services (healthcare, education, employment, housing, justice, effective security, etc.) and accessing property and natural resources more generally, and also relative to political expression or the capacity to respond to ecological risks. When these inequalities are based on criteria prohibited by law, they constitute discrimination.
- conflict > War
- Violent confrontation between armed groups over values, status, power or scarce resources, in which the aim of each party is to neutralize, weaken or eliminate their adversaries. This organized, collective, armed violence can be undertaken by states (via their national armies) or by non-state groups; it can bring several states into opposition (interstate war) or occur within a single state (civil war). The former, progressively codified within a legal framework, have become rare, while the latter, today primarily caused by state institutional failure, are tending to become more international in scope, to last over time (sometimes decades) and to be extremely devastating, especially for civilian populations.
- social coverage > Social Protection
- Payments enabling individuals to cope with life’s risks without compromising their living standards. These include maternity, the costs of raising a family, sickness and disability, unemployment, old age, etc. The three current systems have different origins and aims and influence each other. Social assistance is a minimum income intended to establish solidarity between individuals in the fight against poverty. It is means-tested rather than being based on previous contributions (for example, the welfare system advocated by Beveridge in the UK). Social insurance seeks to counteract the risk of loss of income by providing benefits funded by contributions taken from wages (for example, the system introduced by Bismarck in Germany). Universal benefits are intended to cover certain types of expenditure for all individuals and identical amounts are paid to all, regardless of income or contributions (for example, universal health care coverage in France).