Emerging Countries
Meeting between Barack Obama and BASIC Heads of State (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) on the last day of COP 15 in Copenhagen on climate change, Denmark, 18 December 2009
Credit: Pete Souza (Official White House Photo) / Domaine public
Summary
The term “emerging,” initially used by financial and economic actors and subsequently by political ones, serves to analyze how the various countries so described had integrated internationally. Although they share a common concern to challenge an international order which they wish to be fairer and more representative, emerging countries differ both in the courses they have followed and in their diplomatic strategies.
The adjective “emerging” was first used by financial actors in the late twentieth century to describe markets with high rates of return despite riskier investments. It was then adopted in diplomatic and political circles.
A notion with variable meanings
The description “emerging powers” is applied to countries invited to G8 summits in the framework of the Heiligendamm dialogue process (China, Mexico, India, Brazil, South Africa), as well as to G20 states (financial) who are not members of the G8; to participants of emerging clubs such as the IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa), created in 2003; to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), meeting officially from 2009 onward; and, since 2013, to MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Australia). Although the term has spread, the different circumstances in which it is used do not enable the subjects of this emergence to be clearly identified (markets, economies, countries, powers, states). Neither are there any criteria by which to distinguish them, and a comparison of socio-economic indicators does not show sufficiently strong similarities that might identify them. The variable meaning of the notion is linked to the different uses made of it by these actors: in 2001, the acronym BRIC invented by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs merely indicated the inclusion of promising economies, while since 2008-2009, BRIC (which became BRICS in 2011 after South Africa entered the club) also refers to a joint diplomatic initiative.
Emerging markets, 2018
Comment: The map shows that the category of countries known as “emerging” comes first and foremost from the world of finance: in this case, through the FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s or Morgan Stanley Bank groups of analysis and financial rating. The classification shows overlaps with political organizations (BRICS or G20). Nevertheless, these emerging countries do not present a particular geographical whole, although there are few of them in Africa; nor do they have specific individual profiles, since continent-states sit side by side with small states.
Rather than embark on a fruitless search for statistical consistency or a hierarchy based on indicators, it is wiser to examine the strategies for international integration of the actors thus described – whether they claim or contest this description – and to analyze their discourse and practices.
Contesting and reforming the international order
The integration of emerging countries is characterized by contestation of the present international order and a demand for reform in order to make it “more just, equitable, fair, democratic and representative,” as proclaimed in paragraph 2 of the BRICS Leaders Xiamen in September 2017. It is shown in the refusal of these countries to be marginalized in decision-making processes (activism of the Trade G20 during the WTO Cancun Ministerial Conference in 2003), the creation of new institutions (the New Development Bank, an international financial institution established by BRICS in 2014), and the development of discourses and practices presented as alternatives to those of Northern and/or Western countries. South-South cooperation, for example, described as egalitarian, horizontal, and based on reciprocity, is designed to renew development aid procedures while enabling emerging countries to participate in debates on the global governance of aid, as demonstrated by Isaline Bergamaschi and Folashadé Soulé-Kohndou.
The international integration of emerging countries has non-linear effects, from blocking negotiations (at the WTO for example) to modest but symbolic reforms (reform of the IMF voting system), through to diplomatic coups (Turkish-Brazilian attempt to mediate on the Iranian nuclear issue in 2010).
Evolution of International Monetary Fund (IMF) quotas and voting power, 2014-2018
Comment: The map shows state quotas in the IMF, which translates as the voting shares they have for each decision put to vote. The United States, which has the most, also holds a right of veto, before Japan and China. The most recent reform gave more power to so-called emerging countries (China, whose quota shares were doubled, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Iran, Turkey, Colombia, and Poland), whereas the influence of so-called early industrialized countries decreased (United States and Canada, Western and Northern Europe, and Japan).
While bringing change, it also helps to legitimize and reproduce the working methods of inherited hierarchies. The behavior of BASIC countries at the COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, condemned by the G77, belongs to a dynamic that is similar to the connivance diplomacy studied by Bertrand Badie; while the organization into clubs tends to exclude civil society and lead to protest, as proved by the activism of the BRICS from Belownetwork.
Multiple trajectories and diplomatic strategies
Despite the convergence of certain demands and collective protest actions, emerging countries differ from one another by virtue of their historical trajectories, their political regimes, their social systems, their demographic features, their economic choices, their forms of capitalism, and their diplomatic strategies.
G20 members, GDP and inequality, 1980-2016
Comment: Through the development of economic indicators since 1980, the graphs show the heterogeneity of “emerging” countries. Their changes in GDP are highly variable, with China showing the strongest growth. When their GDP is calculated per capita, all the emerging countries have extremely low figures (especially India and Indonesia, but China too), with the exception of South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Internal income inequalities are high, often more so than in the early industrialized countries.
This observation prompts us to consider the differing strategies of emerging countries. The case of emerging clubs, for example, shows that states belonging to the same club do not necessarily share the same objectives (China and India, for instance, with regard to the New Development Bank); that states do not necessarily put similar efforts into the clubs to which they belong (India in IBSA or BRICS); and the club’s unity is not always preserved in other domains. The comparison over time also enables us to analyze the extent to which integration strategies differ according to leaders, as is highlighted by political and diplomatic developments in Brazil over recent years.
- G8 > G7/G8
- Following the informal meetings of the Library Group (comprising representatives of the United States, Japan, France, the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom), French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing brought together the heads of government of six states in 1975 (Italy being added to this list). Becoming G7 (Canada) in 1976, then G8 (Russia) in 1997, the group has now become seven again following Russia’s suspension (due to its annexation of Crimea). Initially focused on economics and finance, the G7-G8 agenda has since expanded to address security, political and social issues. This club of the major powers appears to lack legitimacy and representativeness; its summits regularly give rise to demonstrations.
- G20 > G20 (The financial G20)
- Club comprising the G8 members, 11 other developed states (South Korea, Australia) and emerging states (South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) and the European Union. These countries’ finance ministers and central bank governors have been meeting since 1999, following a number of economic crises. Since 2008 it has become a summit meeting (heads of state and government), addressing financial, trade and development issues.
- powers > Power
- Ability of political actors to impose their will on others. Comparable to the notion of authority within a nation, power is never absolute but has its existence in a relationship, since power relations are a matter of each actor’s perception of the other. Power is key to the realist approach to international relations, where it is understood in geostrategic terms (hard power is based on force and coercion, especially of a military nature). The transnationalist approach offers a more diversified vision including factors of influence (Joseph Nye’s soft power exerted in economic, cultural and other terms) and emphasizing the importance of controlling different orders of power, from hard to soft (Susan Strange’s “structural power”).
- G20 > G20 (The financial G20)
- Club comprising the G8 members, 11 other developed states (South Korea, Australia) and emerging states (South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) and the European Union. These countries’ finance ministers and central bank governors have been meeting since 1999, following a number of economic crises. Since 2008 it has become a summit meeting (heads of state and government), addressing financial, trade and development issues.
- institutions > Institutions
- The term institution refers to social structures (rules, standards, practices, actions, roles) that are long-lasting, organized in a stable and depersonalized way, and play a part in regulating social relationships. An institution can be formalized within organizations (international or otherwise). In political science, institutionalism tackles the objects of political analysis by studying their structural basis and their organizational model rather than thinking about how they relate to society.
- international financial institution > International financial institutions
- Arising from the international Bretton Woods Conference of July 1944, which proposed the creation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, these institutions were shaped by a liberal agenda, working to ensure monetary stability via a system of exchange rates and to support the post-war reconstruction process. The United States and the industrialized nations are a dominant force within the IMF – which took on an increasingly important role following the debt crisis of 1982 onward, promoting structural adjustment policies in Africa and Latin America and then (post-1989) in the former communist countries. Economic and/or financial crises (in the 1990s and 2000s) forced countries to evolve (into stable states, free of corruption, able to pursue policies to combat poverty, and including civil society organizations).
- development aid > Official development assistance
- Gifts and loans granted by developed countries (bilateral aid) and international institutions (multilateral aid) to developing and less developed countries: food aid, technical assistance, military assistance, debt relief, and so on. Bilateral aid (2/3 of world aid) leads to dependency (obligation to buy goods and services from the donor’s companies). Introduced during the Cold War era and the time of decolonization, it was used by the United States and the USSR to create or maintain links with their respective blocs, as well as between former metropoles and their former empires. The target of spending 0.7% of developed countries’ GDP for ODA, which was set by the UN in 1970, has only rarely been reached. The European Union is the primary world provider of aid. Multilateral aid is conditional upon respecting economic and political “good governance” criteria.
- governance > Governance
- Inspired by management and entrepreneurship, the expression global governance refers to the formal and informal institutions, mechanisms and processes through which international relations between states, citizens, markets and international and non-governmental organizations are established and structured. The global governance system aims to articulate collective interests, to establish rights and duties, to arbitrate disputes and to determine the appropriate regulatory mechanisms for the issues and actors in question. Governance takes various forms: global multilateral governance, club-based governance (restricted to members, e.g. G7/8/20), polycentric governance (juxtaposition of regulatory and management mechanisms operating at various levels), and so on.
- negotiations > Negotiation
- Practice which aims to secure agreement between public or private actors, satisfying the participants’ material and symbolic interests by means of mutual concessions. International negotiations are one of the methods of peacefully resolving disputes and can be bilateral (between two actors) or multilateral (three or more actors). They often result in an official document (joint declaration, peace agreement, trade treaty, international convention). Collective negotiation (or collective bargaining) refers to negotiations within a company between the employer and workforce representatives (generally belonging to trade unions) regarding the application of labor law.
- mediate > Mediation
- Peaceful mode of resolving disputes involving the use of an intermediary, the mediator, to help the conflicting parties find an outcome negotiated through mutual concessions. Mediators are expected to operate impartially and with complete independence. Regulated internationally by the Hague Convention of 1907, mediation was used by the League of Nations (LoN) and has since been deployed, in particular, by the UN. Mediation is also practiced within democratic states in order to resolve minor disputes (i.e. family mediation, judicial mediation, etc.). Cultural mediation is used, for instance, in providing support to migrants.
- G77
- The G77 is a coalition of more than 130 nations, presenting itself as a group of “developing countries.” Their solidarity emerged during negotiations at the first United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in 1964. Initially mobilized around development issues, today the G77 is also active in other negotiations – such as those relating to climate change, for example.
- civil society > Civil Society
- At the national level, civil society refers to a social body that is separate from the state and greater than the individuals and groups of which it is formed (social classes, socio-professional categories, generations, etc.). The notion of a global civil society emerged in the 1970s (John Burton, World Society) and refers to social relations formed in the international arena and beyond the control of states, when citizens of all countries take concerted action to demand regulations that may be supranational or infranational. However, the term conceals a great diversity. The notion of world society emerged among geographers in the 1990s and refers to the more all-encompassing process of creating a social space at the planetary level.
- network > Network
- Classical geography tended to place too much importance on surface areas, territories, countries and soil, but network analysis has now become central to its approach. Networks are defined as spaces in which distance is discontinuous and consists of nodes linked by lines. Some are physical (networks for the transportation of people, goods and energy, IT cables and information super highways), others not. When they are partly virtual (such as the internet), they also involve individuals and organizations. Philosophers (Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari), sociologists (Manuel Castells), political scientists (James Rosenau), and economists use this concept to analyze the interconnected functioning of individuals.
- political regimes > Political Regime
- In common usage, this term refers to a state’s political institutions, whereas the broader notion of political system includes the various political and social actors operating within them (political parties, trades unions, media, voluntary organizations, voters, etc.). The many criteria for differentiating between political regimes vary from one author and period to the next, tending to increase over time in number and sophistication (number of leaders, procedures for appointing the government, degree of separation between the legislative, executive and judiciary authorities, relations between government and governed, etc.).
- capitalism > Capitalism
- An economic system based on private ownership of the means of production and the free market (free enterprise, free trade, free competition, etc.; the foundations of liberalism). In this system, the capital holders (as distinct from employees who form the workforce and who, according to Marx, are exploited) seek to maximize their profits (accumulating capital). After the end of feudalism, the system took hold during the Industrial Revolution. Now adopted by all countries (with the exception of communist ones), it takes multiple forms, and still includes state intervention (to a greater or lesser extent), for the purpose of regulation (notably in the Rhineland model or the social market economy in Scandinavian countries) or as actor and planner (Japan, Singapore, France, etc.).