Climate change
Aerial view on the sea ice in Svalbard (Norway), 2009
Credit: UN Photo / Mark Garten / CC BY NC ND
Summary
Global warming is a complex international problem involving many actors. It is a direct consequence of anthropic emissions of greenhouse gases. Despite the fact that the first universal agreement on climate was signed in Paris in 2015, the international climate régime remains ill-equipped to respond to the urgency of the problem and to address its structural causes.
In 1979, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment), along with three other UN bodies, organized the First World Climate Conference. These two organizations joined forces to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988, consolidating the central role of interactions between science and politics at the heart of the international climate regime.
Climate change indicators
Comment: Since 1958, has shown the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher each decade than it was the decade before. The increase is accelerating, so that in 2018, it exceeded the 1958 figure by 30%. Over a longer period, of several hundred thousand years, the current increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, linked to human activity, is very sudden and unlike any preceding cyclic variations: concentration never exceeded 300 ppmv (parts per million volume) even at the height of the previous four interglacial episodes. As for the global monthly average temperature, the trend is similar: since 1880, the most recent years have always been hotter, while earlier years have been colder.
Causes and consequences of climate warming
According to the IPCC, the last three decades have been the warmest since 1850. Between 1880 and 2012, the average temperature of the earth’s surface (around 14°C) has increased by 0.85°C. This warming, unprecedented in both speed and scale, is the direct consequence of increased anthropic emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, CO , but also methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride). While CO emissions are mainly produced by the consumption of fossil fuels (transport, electricity, heating, etc.), by some industries like cement production and by deforestation, anthropic methane emissions primarily arise from agriculture and livestock. Identifying the polluters, though, depends on how we decide to account for emissions (per capita? By country? Emissions from imported products?) and on the timescale selected (since the industrial revolution? Or current emissions?).
CO₂ emissions, 2016
Comment: The Global Carbon Project is a worldwide program, financed by NGOs, which develops scientific knowledge about greenhouse gases. This network’s estimates of CO2 emissions are a benchmark. If emissions are considered by country, China produces the most – almost a third of global emissions – ahead of the United States. Apart from these two main emission-producers, the global geography proves rather similar to the economic weight of different countries (according to GDP). When they are calculated per capita, these CO2 emissions reveal a geographical picture closer to that of the Human Development Index (HDI), with the exception of Europe, where the figures are less than in the Gulf States, North America, Russia, and Australia. They are lower in the countries of the South (Africa, Southern Asia).
Climate warming affects different regions of the globe to differing degrees – the Arctic being the most severely impacted – and the consequences of climate change are unequally distributed, too. Rising sea levels endanger the least developed small island states in particular, and the increased incidence of extreme climate events primarily impacts regions vulnerable to hurricanes, cyclones and tropical storms. Climate variability affects water stress and agricultural productivity, which in turn endangers food security and the living conditions of those populations most dependent on agriculture. Climate change take effect in contexts of vulnerability, where it heightens risks: in the absence of appropriate political responses, this can cause forced displacement and economic, social and political tensions. The causes and consequences of these changes are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Exposure to climate risks is unequal, then, varying according to the region concerned, the vulnerability of the people affected, the policy responses adopted and other cross-cutting factors.
Sea-level rise and coastal hazards, 2018
Comment: This map, taken from the Atlas des migrations environnementales [Atlas of Environmental Migration], shows the vulnerability of coastal populations to the rise in ocean levels. Two aspects are depicted: the population density of coasts affected by a centennial flood level, and the principal urban areas exposed to extreme flooding. These two indicators, which overlap somewhat, show that the coastal populations of Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and Japan) are by far the most affected. Other regions are affected more locally, but they still impact millions of people: The Netherlands, the Nile Delta, the Brazilian coastlines, and the southern United States.
Number of natural disasters, 1980-2017
Comment: Munich RE is a reinsurance company (that is, it insures insurers) which has developed an activity assessing natural disasters. According to them, the total number of events registered has multiplied threefold since 1980. Storms, and more commonly floods, are the types of disasters that have most increased since that time.
Framing the climate problem
Some studies have described climate change as a wicked problem: one that is hard to diagnose, and that lacks a clear solution. There is no central authority that can impose measures to reduce GHG emissions – yet the radical changes necessary to decarbonize the global economy involve cost-intensive decisions affecting the ways we organize our societies (energy, housing and construction, transport, food, etc.). And these decisions are inevitably shaped by how the problem is perceived – whether it is framed in environmental, economic, legal, ethical, international or individual or other terms. Proposed solutions might complement each other – but might also be based on incompatible choices (green growth versus degrowth, for example). The fragmented international governance system in which they operate might even make them counterproductive, by sectorizing the climate problem, by divesting politicians of responsibility, and by perpetuating the system that caused climate change in the first place.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in Rio in 1992, institutionalized the process of international climate negotiations. Following the failure of the Copenhagen summit in 2009, which sought to replace the Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997, COP21 led to the signature of the first global climate agreement (the Paris Agreement) in December 2015. This agreement is based on voluntary pledges made by states, establishing the principle of shared but differentiated responsibility. It also emphasizes the historic responsibility of industrialized nations, although this bias is increasingly contested given the rapid growth of emerging economies, China being currently the world’s largest polluter (in absolute emissions terms), having surpassed the United States. The agreement juggles attenuation policies, which aim to reduce GHGs and limit the global temperature increase to 2°C, and adaptation policies, which focus on strengthening states’ ability to adapt to the effects of climate change.
Climate negotiations involve a growing number of actors (scientists, NGOs, think tanks, economic actors, local authorities, etc.) and are shaped by the interplay of alliances between economic and political interests and coalitions which enable the most vulnerable countries to make their voices heard. Yet the UN climate regime remains out of step with the reality of phenomena such as market globalization, fossil fuel use, economic competition, national sovereignty issues, and so on. This “schism with reality,” identified by Stefan Aykut and Amy Dahan, is characteristic of a system centered on global collective action that disregards local and non-state initiatives, focuses on measuring emissions rather than the structural causes of climate change, and remains isolated from the spheres governing energy, trade and development in particular. The reality schism is heightened by the inherent contradictions involved in setting ambitious but unattainable targets (like the 2-degree threshold).
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the UN body of scientific expertise with respect to climate change. Established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, it is tasked with providing “internationally coordinated scientific assessments of the magnitude, timing and potential environmental and socio-economic impact of climate change and [formulating] realistic response strategies.” Divided into three Working Groups, the panel publishes an Assessment Report every five to six years (the last one dates from 2013-2014) accompanied by a Summary for Policymakers approved by governments.
- fossil fuels > Fossil fuels
- {alias} Fossil energies
- deforestation > Deforestation
- Deforestation results from the exploitation of wood resources (boards and planks, paper, fibers, charcoal production, etc.) and tree-felling to use the soil for other activities. It is often done with the aim of replacing forests with different types of farming (monoculture, fodder production, and so on) or for developing infrastructures. Until the mid-twentieth century, it mostly concerned temperate forests, but it then extended to tropical forests. Since the 1990s, private-sector actors have replaced states as the persons mainly responsible for deforestation. In 5,000 years, 1.8 billion hectares of forests have disappeared.
- water stress > Water Stress
- According to the UN, there is water stress when annual water supplies drop below 1,700 m3 per person, water scarcity when annual supplies drop below 1, 000 m3, and absolute scarcity when they go below 500 m3.
- food security > Food Security
- The notion of food security emerged at the World Food Conference of 1974 and has developed since then to include various aspects – access, availability, quality, stability – which were summed up as follows at the World Food Summit of 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” It is one of the seven dimensions of human security set out in the United Nations Human Development Report (HDR) of 1994.
- displacement > Displaced
- According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the term describes persons or groups who have been forced or obliged to flee or leave their homes or their habitual place of residence, in particular because of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, or to avoid the effects of these, but who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border. These are known as IDPs (internally displaced persons).
- risks > Risk
- Risk refers to the perception and recognition of dangers and threats to individuals and to the environment. Having first appeared in academic and political thinking in the late 19th century, with the emergence of a welfare state whose role was to protect against the new social risks, the notion of risk developed in recent decades in the light of the globalization of trade and scientific and technological innovation. In his book Risk Society (1992), German sociologist Ulrich Beck analyzes the transition from “modern” societies built on the dogma of economic growth and technological progress to “post-modern” societies based on the production, management and regulation of risk. This is reflected in the rise of the precautionary principle, which seeks to anticipate the possible or probable consequences of natural and industrial disasters, epidemics or technological innovation, in order to protect the affected populations.
- decarbonize > Decarbonize
- Decarbonization or post-carbon are expressions used to describe the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions to zero. Used by environmental NGOs in their appeals to combat climate change, they also refer to the wider social project to abandon fossil fuels.
- growth > Growth
- A long-term, sustained increase in a country’s production of economic wealth, in other words, its GDP. Economic growth is not synonymous with development. Measuring it with purely economic and monetary tools is becoming increasingly unsatisfactory because of the deterritorialization and internationalization of economic activities, as well as the failure to take account of any wealth creation that cannot be monetized (elimination of illiteracy, gains in scientific or cultural knowledge, etc.). This implies special emphasis on high productivity despite the potential destruction (especially ecological) caused by growth that is seen exclusively from the angle of economics and financial profitability.
- governance > Governance
- Inspired by management and entrepreneurship, the expression global governance refers to the formal and informal institutions, mechanisms and processes through which international relations between states, citizens, markets and international and non-governmental organizations are established and structured. The global governance system aims to articulate collective interests, to establish rights and duties, to arbitrate disputes and to determine the appropriate regulatory mechanisms for the issues and actors in question. Governance takes various forms: global multilateral governance, club-based governance (restricted to members, e.g. G7/8/20), polycentric governance (juxtaposition of regulatory and management mechanisms operating at various levels), and so on.
- Kyoto Protocol
- The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty on climate change negotiated by states signing up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997. It came into force in 2005. It is the first such agreement to be legally binding and requires signatories to fulfill targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It mainly affects industrialized countries, which can use the flexibility mechanisms set out in the protocol (tradable permits, joint implementation, clean development mechanisms). The refusal of the United States Senate to ratify the treaty and Canada’s withdrawal in 2011 have seriously undermined its credibility.
- attenuation > Adaptation
- Adaptation policies work to implement measures that will help societies adapt to new climatic conditions and the harmful effects of climate change (climate variations, natural disasters, rising sea levels, etc.). Social adaptation to climate change has, since 2009, been favored by an international climate regime which, until then, had been dominated by the principle of mitigation. It was nevertheless the first solution put in motion in the 1970s to justify environmental economic policies preserving fossil fuels. Today, states implement national plans for adapting to climate change in order to limit its effects.
- adaptation > Adaptation
- Adaptation policies work to implement measures that will help societies adapt to new climatic conditions and the harmful effects of climate change (climate variations, natural disasters, rising sea levels, etc.). Social adaptation to climate change has, since 2009, been favored by an international climate regime which, until then, had been dominated by the principle of mitigation. It was nevertheless the first solution put in motion in the 1970s to justify environmental economic policies preserving fossil fuels. Today, states implement national plans for adapting to climate change in order to limit its effects.
- negotiations > Negotiation
- Practice which aims to secure agreement between public or private actors, satisfying the participants’ material and symbolic interests by means of mutual concessions. International negotiations are one of the methods of peacefully resolving disputes and can be bilateral (between two actors) or multilateral (three or more actors). They often result in an official document (joint declaration, peace agreement, trade treaty, international convention). Collective negotiation (or collective bargaining) refers to negotiations within a company between the employer and workforce representatives (generally belonging to trade unions) regarding the application of labor law.
- alliances > Alliance
- An alliance is a commitment between two or more states that are seeking to ensure cooperation in the areas of international security and defense. Its purpose is to create a deterrent in the face of a third-party state, to increase the power of its members when there is the prospect of war, or to prevent allied countries from forming other alliances. Alliances may be institutionalized or more informal, permanent (NATO) or ad hoc (coalitions in Middle-Eastern wars). They can be appeasement factors when the deterrent effect comes into play, but they also create instability when rigid alignments can lead to military escalation, as in 1914.
- national > Nation
- Political community based on an awareness of shared characteristics and/or a will to live together. It is common practice to contrast political and cultural concepts of the nation – which in practice are mutually influential and tend to converge. In the political concept, the nation is invented and produced by a state: the territory precedes the nation and defines its contours (this is known as the French concept, based on the republican melting pot and jus soli, right of the soil). In the cultural understanding of nation, a shared common culture produces the nation. The national project consists in bringing this population together on a single territory (the cultural or romantic or German concept of the nation, based on jus sanguinis, right of blood). The latter concept intrinsically produces conflicts and can lead to ethnic cleansing or genocide (Nazi Germany, Greater Serbia, etc.).