Proliferation
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), New York, October 2016
Credit: ICAN, 2016
Summary
The category of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD), like its expression in terms of proliferation, begs a question. Yet the chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons gathered under the acronym WMD are subject to separate regulatory processes, which take place within different timeframes. Since the 1990s, the word “proliferation” has also been associated with conventional weapons (anti-personnel mines, light weapons, etc.).
The term “weapons of mass destruction” (WMDs), which came into being at the end of the Second World War in connection with the appearance of nuclear weapons, designates weapons which are defined, in the first instance, in negative terms – as being non-traditional or non-conventional. As a category, its coherence is questionable in two respects. On the one hand, it is defined in many different ways – not all of which include the same types of weapons under WMDs: should radiological weapons be included alongside nuclear, chemical and biological weapons? High-explosive weapons? The malicious software used in cyberattacks? On the other hand, what qualifies as a weapon of “mass destruction” can be contested: chemical weapons, condemned as symbolic of the war’s horror at the end of the First World War, accounted for a marginal number of combatants killed in this conflict, while data around the number of fatalities caused by biological weapons are scarce. Rather than translating an empirical reality, the term WMD is implicated in the process of constructing an apparently exceptional threat, in the demonization of an enemy and attempts to legitimize contentious actions: in 2003, the United States justified their military intervention in Iraq with the (false) supposition that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed WMDs; strikes by France, the US and the UK in Syria in April 2018 were undertaken in response to the use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime. The word proliferation, frequently paired with WMDs, underpins this process, designating both the dissemination of these weapons (nuclear weapons in particular) among an increasing number of actors, and an increase in the number of weapons these actors possess. Interpreting nuclear history in this light obscures the fact that most states have not sought to acquire nuclear weapons and that deproliferation processes (as in South Africa) also exist. More recently, the threat of WMD proliferation has also evolved to designate the fear that non-state actors, especially terrorists, might seize/use/possess these weapons. This fear was heightened by the discovery of the A. Q. Khan network in the early 2000s, leading to Security Councilresolution 1540.
Regulatory divergence
While WDM is a unifying term, the various processes around disarmamentnegotiations, prohibition and/or non-proliferation are clearly distinct, operating within different timeframes. Following the efforts of the Hague Convention of 1899 (declaration on asphyxiating gases), the Geneva Protocol of 1925 (which came into force in 1928) prohibited the use of asphyxiating gases and biological weapons in war. It dealt only with the use of these weapons and products (which are not listed) during armed conflict, and was supplemented at a later date by further texts that treated the two types of weapons separately. Negotiated in the era of bipolarity, the Convention on the prohibition of biological weapons (1972) was not accompanied by a verification mechanism although an Implementation Support Unit was established in 2006. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is charged with overseeing compliance with the convention of the same name, which came into force in 1997.
In contrast to these two documents, which imply processes of disarmament, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) aims to limit the number of parties possessing nuclear weapons – the logic of disarmament, referenced ambiguously in Article VI of the treaty, does not appear as a priority.
Nuclear proliferation and disarmament, 2018
Comment: The NPT came into force in 1970, creating a global geography that differentiated between states possessing a nuclear weapon (at the time, China, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and the USSR) and those that had none. The treaty did not prevent other states from acquiring this weapon of mass destruction (North Korea, India, Israel, and Pakistan, all of them outside the NPT, as were Syria and South Sudan). In opposition to this proliferation, some states have signed treaties committing them to preserve vast nuclear-weapons-free zones (Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, South East Asia, Oceania, and Antarctica).
Non-Proliferation Treaty
The NPT, which was signed in 1968 and came into force in 1970, compliance being entrusted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), identifies a club of legitimate nuclear powers. Highly controversial for this reason, it was nonetheless extended indefinitely in 1995, but has not been signed by India, Pakistan or Israel, and North Korea withdrew from it in 2003. In parallel, several nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) were agreed and arms control agreements were drawn up between the major powers (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks [SALT], Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty [START]). From 2007 onward, as the campaign to abolish nuclear weapons got under way (ICAN), the aim of a achieving a world without these weapons gathered momentum (Global Zero, Security Council resolution 1887, New START agreements); a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was agreed in 2017 but has not been signed by the existing nuclear powers.
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2018
Comment: This map shows the geography of the UN General Assembly vote in July 2017. The states that were against a nuclear weapons ban did not take part in the vote. They consisted of those which already had nuclear weapons and their allies; the Netherlands was the only country to take part in the vote and to vote against. The majority of member states were for: these were mainly from the South (from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South East Asia) but also from Europe (Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, and Austria). Ratification of this treaty has been open for a short time and remains limited (19 states in January 2019). ICAN, the NGO that militated in favor of the treaty, obtained the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.
During the 1990s the term “proliferation” was increasingly linked with conventional weapons (anti-personnel mines, small arms and light weapons) both in the media and in the discourse of relevant actors – underscoring the fact that the weapons causing the highest number of fatalities, especially in civil wars, are not WMDs.
Proliferation of light weapons, 1962-2016
Comment: These curves complete the map showing the trade in light weapons by contributing a chronology for the top ten exporting and importing countries between 1962 and 2016. Although the figures are in common currency, which exaggerates recent figures on account of inflation, the international trade in light weapons substantially increased from the late 1980s onwards. The United States imports the bulk of international trade, more than 2.5 billion dollars worth in 2016, whereas exports are more divided between the United States, then Italy, Germany, and South Korea.
In consequence, and partly through initiatives by coalitions of civil society actors (International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Control Arms campaign), we have seen a series of initiatives and regulatory endeavors: the Ottawa Treaty in 1997, Security Council resolution 1467, the Arms Trade Treaty in 2013. Yet many obstacles remain: traceability issues (trafficking), unwillingness on the part of user states, the widespread availability of weapons in conflict zones and areas of lawlessness.
Small arms trade, 2012-2016
Comment: The data relating to international trade in light weapons (pistols, rifles, and machine guns) are mainly produced by think tanks – in this case, the NISAT Initiative and Small Arms Survey –, especially as it involves assessing the transparency demonstrated by exporting countries. The United States is by far the largest importer of small arms while the main exporters are the United States, followed by Italy and Germany and then South Korea. Only the European states show transparency in their exports. At the opposite extreme, the Gulf countries but also Israel and North Korea prove to be very opaque about the destinations of their exports.
Arms Trade Treaty, 2018
Comment: The map shows the geography of the 2013 UN General Assembly vote on a treaty designed to regulate the arms trade (but not in nuclear, bacteriological, and chemical weapons). The large majority of states in Europe, America, Africa and Oceania voted in favor while three states voted against: Syria, which was at war, Iran, and North Korea – all states that are very opaque about their arms exports (particularly light weapons). Other countries with an important arms trade manifested their disagreement by abstaining from the vote: these were Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
- conflict > War
- Violent confrontation between armed groups over values, status, power or scarce resources, in which the aim of each party is to neutralize, weaken or eliminate their adversaries. This organized, collective, armed violence can be undertaken by states (via their national armies) or by non-state groups; it can bring several states into opposition (interstate war) or occur within a single state (civil war). The former, progressively codified within a legal framework, have become rare, while the latter, today primarily caused by state institutional failure, are tending to become more international in scope, to last over time (sometimes decades) and to be extremely devastating, especially for civilian populations.
- states > State
- The state is a political system that is centralized (unlike the feudal system), differentiated (from civil society, public/private space), institutionalized (institutions are depersonalized), territorialized (a territory whose borders mark the absolute limit of its jurisdiction), that claims sovereignty (holding ultimate power) and that bears responsibility for ensuring its population’s security. In public international law, the state is defined as a population living on a territory defined by borders subject to a political authority (the national territorial state).
- non-state actors > Actor
- An individual, group, or organization whose actions affect the distribution of assets and resources on a global scale. The state has long been considered as the main actor on the international scene, but the number of non-state actors has increased and diversified (businesses, non-governmental organizations, special interest groups, mafias, religious actors, etc.) over the past few decades. Contemporary globalization has made the relationships between these actors more complex.
- terrorists > Terrorism
- A method of violent action inspiring fear (terror) and generally used in an asymmetrical relationship (the weak attack the strong). Unlike an act of war or political assassination, where violence is aimed directly at the target (the enemy), the victims of terrorism are instrumental, the terrorists’ goal being to publicize their violence in the media in order to create a climate of fear and insecurity among those who witness it, and so to generate social, legal and political chaos that will weaken the targeted states or societies. In the absence of any unanimous definition of terrorism, the term is frequently used to delegitimize the actions of opponents who do not refer to themselves as terrorists.
- network > Network
- Classical geography tended to place too much importance on surface areas, territories, countries and soil, but network analysis has now become central to its approach. Networks are defined as spaces in which distance is discontinuous and consists of nodes linked by lines. Some are physical (networks for the transportation of people, goods and energy, IT cables and information super highways), others not. When they are partly virtual (such as the internet), they also involve individuals and organizations. Philosophers (Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari), sociologists (Manuel Castells), political scientists (James Rosenau), and economists use this concept to analyze the interconnected functioning of individuals.
- Security Council
- According to the United Nations Charter, the Security Council has main responsibility for maintaining international peace and security. It is composed of five permanent members (China, United States, France, United Kingdom, and Russia), who can each quash a resolution plan with a negative vote (right of veto), and ten members (six until 1965) elected by the General Assembly for a two-year period that is not immediately renewable. Its resolutions are legally binding upon member states.
- disarmament > Disarmament
- This subject has occupied the internal agenda since the nineteenth century (The Hague Conferences of 1899 and 1907). Disarmament is a process that aims to reduce or remove a state’s weapons and armed forces. It is different from arms limitation or control, which is about restricting their quantity, nature, and use. Disarmament may concern certain categories of weapons (conventional, light, chemical, biological, nuclear, antipersonnel mines, cluster bombs, etc.) and apply to certain regions (definition de denuclearized zones, bi- or multilateral treaties).
- negotiations > Negotiation
- Practice which aims to secure agreement between public or private actors, satisfying the participants’ material and symbolic interests by means of mutual concessions. International negotiations are one of the methods of peacefully resolving disputes and can be bilateral (between two actors) or multilateral (three or more actors). They often result in an official document (joint declaration, peace agreement, trade treaty, international convention). Collective negotiation (or collective bargaining) refers to negotiations within a company between the employer and workforce representatives (generally belonging to trade unions) regarding the application of labor law.
- war > War
- Violent confrontation between armed groups over values, status, power or scarce resources, in which the aim of each party is to neutralize, weaken or eliminate their adversaries. This organized, collective, armed violence can be undertaken by states (via their national armies) or by non-state groups; it can bring several states into opposition (interstate war) or occur within a single state (civil war). The former, progressively codified within a legal framework, have become rare, while the latter, today primarily caused by state institutional failure, are tending to become more international in scope, to last over time (sometimes decades) and to be extremely devastating, especially for civilian populations.
- bipolarity > Bipolarity
- These terms refer to the division of power in the international system. According to the number of dominating powers (one, two, or several), the configuration is described as unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar, respectively. In contrast to these notions, discussed particularly among realist currents in international relations, the idea of apolarity has emerged, which stresses the irrelevance of seeing global space in terms of power centers, because of the way these have been transformed.
- powers > Power
- Ability of political actors to impose their will on others. Comparable to the notion of authority within a nation, power is never absolute but has its existence in a relationship, since power relations are a matter of each actor’s perception of the other. Power is key to the realist approach to international relations, where it is understood in geostrategic terms (hard power is based on force and coercion, especially of a military nature). The transnationalist approach offers a more diversified vision including factors of influence (Joseph Nye’s soft power exerted in economic, cultural and other terms) and emphasizing the importance of controlling different orders of power, from hard to soft (Susan Strange’s “structural power”).
- civil society > Civil Society
- At the national level, civil society refers to a social body that is separate from the state and greater than the individuals and groups of which it is formed (social classes, socio-professional categories, generations, etc.). The notion of a global civil society emerged in the 1970s (John Burton, World Society) and refers to social relations formed in the international arena and beyond the control of states, when citizens of all countries take concerted action to demand regulations that may be supranational or infranational. However, the term conceals a great diversity. The notion of world society emerged among geographers in the 1990s and refers to the more all-encompassing process of creating a social space at the planetary level.
- regulatory > Regulation
- The term regulation refers to all the processes and mechanisms that enable a system to function in a normal, regular fashion. At the international level, it refers to the set of processes, mechanisms and institutions that act to correct imbalances that might threaten the global order and to ensure that actors behave predictably, thereby ensuring stability. It is closely linked to the notions of governance and global public goods.